The Goldman Scam

Friday, July 31, 2009

Or why Congress better tax 95% of Wall Street bonuses (with no bloody loopholes).

From a former Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, Nomi Prins, writing on Mother Jones:

Keep in mind that by virtue of becoming a bank holding company, Goldman received a total of $63.6 billion in federal subsidies (that we know about—probably more if the Fed were ever forced to disclose its $7.6 trillion of borrower details). There was the $10 billion it got from TARP (which it repaid), the $12.9 billion it grabbed from AIG’s spoils—even though Goldman had stated beforehand that it was protected from losses incurred by AIG’s free fall, and if that were the case, would not have needed that money, let alone deserved it. Then, there’s the $29.7 billion it’s used so far out of the $35 billion it has available, backed by the FDIC’s Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program, and finally, there’s the $11 billion available under the Fed’s Commercial Paper Funding Facility.

Tactically, after bagging this bounty, Goldman asked the Fed, its new regulator, if it could use its old risk model to determine capital reserves. It wanted to use the model that its old investment bank regulator, the SEC, was fine with, called VaR, or value at risk. VaR pretty much allows banks to plug in their own parameters, and based on these, calculate how much risk they have, and thus how much capital they need to hold against it. VaR was the same lax SEC-approved risk model that investment banks such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers used, with the aforementioned results.

On February 5, 2009, the Fed granted Goldman’s request. This meant that not only was Goldman getting big federal subsidies, but also that it could keep betting big without saving aside as much capital as the other banks.

Read this piece and then forward to your Congressperson and the White House with your feelings on the matter. The top talent is scamming you.


Why the Stimulus Will/Has Fail(ed)

Monday, July 20, 2009

Because it’s a matter of trust. The economy won’t recover until there is a palpable sense that we are doing the right thing. But no one can say, with certainty, that we are. Meanwhile, Americans, who truly understand being in debt, are watching the government pile on trillions with only a possible (it’s a bet!) positive outcome.

It’s beyond frightening. And though as a basic matter of economics – the money goes into circulation and revives the patient – what they are doing should work, there is a “spiritual” component here that is ignored. The patient has got to believe he’s going to get better. On that score, the doctors have a lot more work to do.

Just watch the Q2 GDP numbers beat expectations. We’ll hear that the recession is (near) over. And yet…their are plenty of layoffs on the horizon and no job creation; plenty of debt, and nothing resembling a balanced budget.

The hardest times are still ahead.

P.S. On a related note, if Congress doesn’t tax Goldman Sachs bonuses at, like, 90% (and they won’t), it will be hard to say that Americans aren’t justified in taking the law into their own hands down at 85 Broad Street. Goldman Sachs represents the apotheosis of the moral hazard. Too big to fail, they make their profits on your back.


Cash for Clunkers: WTF?

Friday, June 19, 2009

I have completely soured on the American political system. Really, I have given up.

Democrats are in charge of Congress and the Executive and they still pass shit legislation like the weak credit card reform bill, Obama’s financial regulatory half-measures (still to be watered down even further), and now this cash for clunkers deal.

What the fuck? Just what the fuck?

Why should someone driving a piece of shit get my money to help them buy a new car? And, you know what? We’re borrowing it. So it’s my child’s money. $104 billion Treasury auction next week. And the bottom line here is that all of the important reforms are not happening. It’s all window dressing. And kicking the can down the road. Again. Just like the GOP. We have a completely dysfunctional, utterly broken political system and it won’t change until (seriously) a revolution happens.

WE ARE FUCKED.


Bernanke, Paulson Lies

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Par for the course. Reflate those popped tires and keep driving towards that vast chasm in the distance.

Who trusts anyone right now?

From Austrian Filter via Zero Hedge:

February 28, 2007 – Dow Jones @ 12,268

March 13th, 2007 – Henry Paulson: “the fallout in subprime mortgages is “going to be painful to some lenders, but it is largely contained.”

March 28th, 2007 – Ben Bernanke: “At this juncture . . . the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained,”

March 30, 2007 – Dow Jones @ 12,354

April 20th, 2007 – Paulson: “I don’t see (subprime mortgage market troubles) imposing a serious problem. I think it’s going to be largely contained.” , “All the signs I look at” show “the housing market is at or near the bottom,”

April 30, 2007 – Dow Jones @ 13,063

May 17th, 2007 – Bernanke: “While rising delinquencies and foreclosures will continue to weigh heavily on the housing market this year, it will not cripple the U.S.”

May 31, 2007 – Dow Jones @ 13,627

June 20th, 2007 – Bernanke: (the subprime fallout) “will not affect the economy overall.”

July 12th, 2007 – Paulson: “This is far and away the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime.”

August 1st, 2007 – Paulson: “I see the underlying economy as being very healthy,”

October 15th, 2007 – Bernanke: “It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve – nor would it be appropriate – to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions.”

December 31, 2007 – Dow Jones @ 13,265

January 31, 2008 – Dow Jones @ 12,650

February 14th, 2008 – Paulson: (the economy) “is fundamentally strong, diverse and resilient.”

February 28th, 2008 – Paulson: “I’m seeing a series of ideas suggested involving major government intervention in the housing market, and these things are usually presented or sold as a way of helping homeowners stay in their homes. Then when you look at them more carefully what they really amount to is a bailout for financial institutions or Wall Street.”

February 29th, 2008 – Bernanke: “I expect there will be some failures. I don’t anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system.”

March 16th, 2008 – Paulson: “We’ve got strong financial institutions . . . Our markets are the envy of the world. They’re resilient, they’re…innovative, they’re flexible. I think we move very quickly to address situations in this country, and, as I said, our financial institutions are strong.”

March 18th, 2008 – Bear Stearns Bailout Announced

May 7, 2008 – Paulson: ‘The worst is likely to be behind us,”

May 16th, 2008 – Paulson: “In my judgment, we are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning,” he said.

May 30, 2008 – Dow Jones @ 12,638

June 9th, 2008 – Bernanke: Despite a recent spike in the nation’s unemployment rate, the danger that the economy has fallen into a “substantial downturn” appears to have waned,

July 16th, 2008 – Bernanke: (Freddie and Fannie) “…will make it through the storm”, “… in no danger of failing.”,”…adequately capitalized”

July 20th, 2008 – Paulson: “it’s a safe banking system, a sound banking system. Our regulators are on top of it. This is a very manageable situation.”

July 31, 2008 – Dow Jones @ 11,378

August 10th, 2008 – Paulson: “We have no plans to insert money into either of those two institutions.” (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac)

September 8th, 2008 – Fannie and Freddie nationalized. The taxpayer is on the hook for an estimated 1 – 1.5 trillion dollars. Over 5 trillion is added to the nation’s balance sheet.

September 16th, 2008 – $85 Billion AIG Bailout “Loan”

September 19th, 2008 – $700 Billion Bailout Plan Announced

September 19th, 2008 – Paulson: “We’re talking hundreds of billions of dollars – this needs to be big enough to make a real difference and get at the heart of the problem,” he said. “This is the way we stabilize the system.”

September 19th, 2008 – Bernanke: “most severe financial crisis” in the post-World War II era. Investment banks are seeing “tremendous runs on their cash,” Bernanke said. “Without action, they will fail soon.”

September 21st, 2008 – Paulson: “The credit markets are still very fragile right now and frozen”, “We need to deal with this and deal with it quickly.”, “The financial security of all Americans … depends on our ability to restore our financial institutions to a sound footing.”

September 23rd, 2008 – Paulson: “We must [enact a program quickly] in order to avoid a continuing series of financial institution failures and frozen credit markets that threaten American families’ financial well-being, the viability of businesses, both small and large, and the very health of our economy,”

September 23rd, 2008 – Bernanke: “My interest is solely for the strength and recovery of the U.S. economy,”

October 31, 2008 – Dow Jones @ 9,337

March 31, 2009 – Dow Jones @ 7,609From


Rage Against Wall Street

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Just had to post these two:

Matt Taibbi spanks Evan Newmark of the Wall Street Journal for attempting to enshrine Hank Paulson as a hero.

And this future Sarah Palin voter (this mess is now all Obama’s fault):


Summer Hiatus

Monday, May 25, 2009

As you may have noticed the posts have been less frequent over the last few months. Over that time, I’ve been contemplating a new blog (about which I am undecided).

In any case, for the moment, I’m just going taking a break.

So, I may post a few times over the summer as the mood strikes, but I won’t be posting regularly. Enjoy yourselves and keep an eye on the Obama/Bernanke debt and money-printing roll of the dice.

And prepare yourself for harder days ahead.


Sickening

Thursday, May 21, 2009

If there was such a thing as Satan, the Catholic Church would represent his order.

Today’s news about the physical and sexual abuse of hundreds of Irish children entrusted to the care of the church is sickening. Here is the report. This costumed sham, this coven of child molesters and manipulative hypocrites, should be brought to justice before another person is harmed.

Disgraceful. Shameful. EVIL.


Market Manipulation and the Bear Rally

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

The proof is there. Is the SEC investigating? (watch the Fox Business News video via Zero Hedge)

Something strange happened during the last 7 or 8 weeks. Doreen you probably can concur on this — there was a power underneath the market that kept holding it up and trading the futures. I watch the futures every day and every tick, and a tremendous amount of volume came in a several points during the last few weeks, when the market was just about ready to break and shot right up again. Usually toward the end of the day – it happened a week ago Friday, at 7 minutes to 4 o’clock, almost 100,000 S&P futures contracts were traded, and then in the last 5 minutes, up to 4 o’clock, another 100,000 contracts were traded, and lifted the Dow from being down 18 to up over 44 or 50 points in 7 minutes. That is 10 to 20 billion dollars to be able to move the market in such a way. Who has that kind of money to move this market?

On top of that, the market has rallied up during the stress test uncertainty and moved the bank stocks up, and the bank stocks issues secondary – they issues stock – they raised capital into this rally. It was perfect text book setup of controlling the markets – now that the stock has been issued…


Healthcare is the New BMW

Wednesday, May 20, 2009


Link Rodeo: Larry Summers, Test Bias, and Entitlement Apocalypse

Monday, May 18, 2009

American Ponzi…Larry Summers doesn’t practice what he preaches:

But defering to big banks and prefering fiscal expansion is very much a decision in the hands of Treasury and the White House. They may feel this is essential to restoring confidence, but that is not the general experience of countries facing major crises. The usual advice – given by the IMF, often at the behest of the US Treasury – is: manage an insolvency process for failed banks, precisely to reduce fiscal costs now and in the future, and to help restore confidence in the economy. Come to think of it, wasn’t this exact point made – forcefully and publicly – by Summers to the Japanese government during the 1990s?

John McWhorter on test bias against blacks:

Zora Neale Hurston had some apt words in her autobiography, Dust Tracks on a Road: “It seems to me that if I say a whole system must be upset for me to win, I am saying that I cannot sit in the game, and that safer rules must be made to give me a chance. I repudiate that. If others are in there, deal me a hand and let me see what I can make of it.”

We’re running out of money…fast. Social Security will exceed revenues in 7 years:

The Social Security Board of Trustees reported Tuesday that costs will exceed revenues in 2016 — a full year sooner than expected just last year. And total assets — including more than 70 years of “surpluses” built up in the “trust fund” — will be completely gone by 2037 — four years earlier than in last year’s report.


New York City Real Estate to Fall Another 35%

Friday, May 15, 2009

At minimum, according the Deutsche Bank (courtesy of Clusterstock). Goldman Sachs has them falling another 58%.

And this with prices already down 20-25% (though DB has them down only 8% as of Q4 ‘08).


Retail Sales Drop .4% in April

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

.4%, with a revised to a 1.3% drop in March. This, against analyst estimates of a flat or small gain in sales.

They’ve been smoking the green shoots, of course.

In a related note, here’s Andy Kessler on the sucker’s rally. If you bought in the last few weeks, sell now. Take your profit and run.

Or not. In this time of magic realism, the Obama team could pull off anything.


Home Prices Continue to Fall

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

From CNBC:

Nationwide, the median sales price was $169,900, down 13.8 percent from a year ago.

The peak for the nationwide median price was $230,100, in July 2006, according the the National Association of Realtors.


Insane April P/E Ratio

Monday, May 11, 2009

Just dig this chart here, courtesy of D-Short:

Oh yeah, sustainable rally! Go Bulls!


Hooray! Unemployment Hits Only 8.9%

Friday, May 8, 2009

Hooray! The official number is only 539,000 jobs lost! …But it is, like seemingly everything coming out of the Obama administration these days, seriously fudged.

BLS adds in a season adjustment of tens of thousands for net birth/death rate, and there were another 60K government census (temporary) jobs added to the rolls. Altogether, the private sector lost over 650K jobs. And it will go up once it is revised next month.

But don’t worry, nothing to see here. The stress tests boosted the banks, borrowing and printing money is not insanely dangerous, and massive unemployment won’t depress a consumer based economy. There are no state and local governments in desperate financial trouble, no pension funds that are seriously underfunded, home prices and foreclosures are leveling off, and America didn’t just have to raise the coupon (mid-auction) on a 30-year bond offering in order to get people to buy them.

Nope, nothing to see here. Green shoots everywhere.

“We cannot go back to an economy that is built on a pile of sand — on inflated home prices and maxed-out credit cards, on overleveraged banks and outdated regulations that allowed the recklessness of a few to threaten the prosperity of us all.”

This was Barack Obama on April 29 in a press conference marking his first 100 days in office.

What is so scary about this is that we really can’t trust anyone, especially the government. The Obama administration understands propaganda and media manipulation (at least as well, if not better, than the Bushies). Do they understand in a deeply interconnected world, with an increasingly irrelevant mainstream media, that lies are uncovered quickly and undermine trust and confidence?

Do they ultimately understand that the crisis is an issue of confidence?

Right now, they’re just buying time and praying. We’d all be well advised to do the same.