The Kentucky Derby is a notoriously difficult race to handicap. It is a 20 horse scrum that depends on gate position, start, luck, and finishing talent. One thing to avoid: speedsters. Much more often than not, the horse that takes the early lead can’t sustain it. Here are my picks:
Take the trifecta box on:
Big Brown
Recapturetheglory
Colonel John
For your longshot, take Z Fortune to win.
Here is the Daily Racing Form’s (free) Past Performances Sheet in PDF.
Friday, May 2, 2008 at 10:04 pm |
How can you say avoid speedsters and have Big Brown as your number one pick? Don’t get me wrong, I think Big Brown will win but it’s kind of contradictory.
Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:29 am |
The problem with Big Brown is he hasn’t raced that much. It seems like he might have the whole package, speed and stamina, but its impossible to know. In part, I’m just going with my gut. What I really meant was avoid a horse that’s all speed and hasn’t shown a finish at distance.